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Note - MY world. Be aware it is that of a very dogmatic old man who is still thinking like he did back then but prepared to listen to todayThursday, 30 July 2009
Eureka!
I have been reading some accounts of the Communist campaign in Malaya during the early '50s. When I got out there, it was almost over but many of the restrictions were still in force or recent enough so that a newcomer could see what had been done to defeat Chin Peng's forces. My readings revived these memories and I went on to compare Afghanistan of today with those days and situations.
We had trained and supplied what became the CT force much as we had the mujahadeen. Our Force 136 fought the Japanese and the muja. the Russians. Both were successful campaigns but went on to become fresh fields of battle. Our enemy operated in areas where they had many advantages over us - the jungle and the wide open deserts and widespread communities. They were quite pitiless in punishing anyone whom they deemed had collaborated with us; these punishments were terror instruments in themselves. Children slaughtered in front of parents who were spared as living testimonies of helping the authorities. CT's needs were simple and they were quite capable of living off the country - simply taking what was needed from the non-involved peasants.
Tactically, they were devious and used quite simple plans of attack. Well sited ambushes. Booby traps. Explosives. Attack resources to draw our forces into areas where almost everything was in their favour. We had ample assets in terms of air power and artillery but were given little opportunity to deploy them. Our enemy was unconcerned at inflicting collateral damage but were well aware of our need to retain hearts and minds. We spent vast sums in direct operational costs - £1 million for every terrorist killed. We expended much money in local reconstruction which the enemy promptly destroyed at little or no cost to themselves.
Back then, Whitehall showed little involvement. The local European community of tin miners and rubber planters were very vocal and fiercely contemptuous of know nothing and care even less functionaries in England. The major US and UK companies involved in tin-tapping decided what was best for themselves and went about maintaining that situation. Even to the extent of supplying their estate managers with arms, ammunition and funny-money as required.
One of the most radical measures was the relocation of villages. These originally were scattered widely and provided life blood for the CT. Guarding the dispersed communities was almost impossible. Solution was to transfer inhabitants to purpose built villages built with an eye to their protection. Resistance to the moves was initially high but this was overcome but granting title to land in and around the village. This had a tremendous psychological effect. Transferees were given materials to build their own accommodation and transport to the new opportunity was freely provided. This initiative was branded by CT propagandists as a renewal of the Boer War concentration camps but the enthusiasm of the new villagers did not sustain this view.
So - where does this meld with our problem in Afghanistan?
Were we to repeat the relocation, we would have many advantages. The new compounds would be designed to afford public health and hygiene standards to raise the expectations of life for babies, children and adults. Pure water. Regular sanitation. Our reconstruction monies would go directly to the individual compounds to benefit the Afghans there. Not as some sort of Social Security handout to people squatting on their heels but to set up village industry and self-sufficiency. We would not transfer the poppy farming. Resistance to this should be overcome when alternative channels of income were identified, set up and supported. The design of the new would incorporate bases for ANA and ANP garrisons designed and fitted out to maximise their capability. Watch towers, fortifications, strong communications. Suitable trained (and indoctrinated) Afghans to form local councils in conjunction with the traditional grey-beards.
This will take time. And money. We are currently looking at involvement in the current mess for many years and the corruption takes a lot of the money. Devolving our attentions over the villages would reduce the opportunity for skimming central fundings. It would also need commitment. One thing America does well is handling large projects. Our own forces are renowned for small scale engineering. We surely Can Do - all it needs is will power.
Sunday, 12 July 2009
Fight 'em on the beaches etc etc
Britain's offensive against the Taliban is showing signs of success, despite the heavy losses of recent days, says Gordon Brown.The Prime Minister said the campaign in Afghanistan was a "patriotic duty" to keep the streets of Britain safe from the threat of terrorist attack. In an interview with the British Forces Broadcasting Service, he paid tribute to the "sacrifice" of the 15 troops who had died since the start of the month in the bloodiest fighting the Army has seen in the Afghan campaign.Britain's offensive against the Taliban is showing signs of success, despite the heavy losses of recent days, says Gordon Brown. "I know that this has been a difficult summer - it is going to be a difficult summer," he said. "These sacrifices that have hurt so many families in our country are ones that the whole of Britain will want to acknowledge."
Troops are fighting for the ‘future of Britain’ warns Foreign Secretary as the Afghanistan death toll rises. David Miliband spoke out following a surge in British casualties, which saw eight soldiers killed in just 24 hours.
This brings the death toll since combat began in 2001 to184, overtaking the 179 troops killed in Iraq.
Miliband today defended Britain’s continuing presence in Afghanistan saying that the country had to be secured to safeguard against future terror attacks on home soil.
He said: "We must ensure that Afghanistan can not again become an incubator for terrorism and a launching pad for attacks on us.”
"This is about the future of Britain because we know that the borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan have been used to launch terrible attacks, not just on the US but on Britain as well."
So, the USP of their published remarks is the avoidance of a war on terror being fought on the streets of England. Given the results of their "War on" campaigns such as W.o. drugs, W.o. knives. W.o. want amongst many others the chance of a W.o. terror breaking out is something to be avoided like the plague.
If we are indeed fighting the W.o. terror as an away match, we seem to be missing the ground where it is being held. In 2002, analysts were reporting that Lt. Gen. Dan K. McNeill, who has taken over the command of the US-led campaign has admitted that the difficulties will grow because it will enable many, if not all, of the top Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders who are still lying low in small groups in Afghanistan, to flee into Pakistan.
Commander of the US-led forces in Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Franklin L. Hegenbeck, said in an interview that virtually the entire senior leadership of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda has been driven out of eastern Afghanistan and is now operating with as many as 1,000 non-Afghan fighters in the anarchic tribal areas of western Pakistan. He claimed on the strength of intelligence reports that the Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders were plotting terrorist attacks, including car and suicide bombing, to disrupt the selection of a new government in Afghanistan this month.
At least two senior Taliban leaders, Fazul Rabi Said-Rehman and Obidullah, have said in an interview that Taliban leaders are reorganising their militant religious movement and the Al-Qaeda was recovering fast. They said there was a split within Pakistan’s powerful spy agency, ISI, between those who share the Taliban’s ideology and those who support Pakistan’s alliance with the US. The two Taliban leaders who claimed that both Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden were alive, warned of some more suicide attacks on the US and Britain in retaliation for the war in Afghanistan.
So, not only have they placed themselves beyond the reach of significant Allied forces, but wherever they were they retained the ability to create terror in both UK and USA.
And then we have another view on the "War on ......" concept. The director of public prosecutions, Sir Ken Macdonald, put himself at odds with the home secretary and Downing Street last night by denying that Britain is caught up in a "war on terror" and calling for a "culture of legislative restraint" in passing laws to deal with terrorism.
Sir Ken warned of the pernicious risk that a "fear-driven and inappropriate" response to the threat could lead Britain to abandon respect for fair trials and the due process of law.
He acknowledged that the country faced a different and more dangerous threat than in the days of IRA terrorism and that it had "all the disturbing elements of a death cult psychology".
But he said: "It is critical that we understand that this new form of terrorism carries another more subtle, perhaps equally pernicious, risk. Because it might encourage a fear-driven and inappropriate response. By that I mean it can tempt us to abandon our values. I think it important to understand that this is one of its primary purposes."
Sir Ken pointed to the rhetoric around the "war on terror" - which has been adopted by Tony Blair and ministers after being coined by George Bush - to illustrate the risks.
He said: "London is not a battlefield. Those innocents who were murdered on July 7 2005 were not victims of war. And the men who killed them were not, as in their vanity they claimed on their ludicrous videos, 'soldiers'. They were deluded, narcissistic inadequates. They were criminals. They were fantasists. We need to be very clear about this. On the streets of London, there is no such thing as a 'war on terror', just as there can be no such thing as a 'war on drugs'.
"The fight against terrorism on the streets of Britain is not a war. It is the prevention of crime, the enforcement of our laws and the winning of justice for those damaged by their infringement."
I see another attraction for a withdrawal of all our forces from Afghanistan. If AQ and its cohorts chose to further a war here, we would be fighting on a battleground where we have considerable advantages over the sandy place. We have something over 160,000 police. The 9,000 troops deployed in Afghanistan would be supplemented by the home reserve and there are those in Germany close at hand. I am sure that our intelligence gathering here would be more intensive and better targetted than it is now. We have Menwith Hill and CCHQ all involved in listening in to plots and plans. Take the prejudicial stance that anyone from a Muslim background could be a AQ operative or sympathiser and we wuld be able to target them on better 1 to 1 terms than the many in Helmund province. Anyone attempting to plant IED along the Mall or to set up mortars in Regent Street would come to notice. We have a fairly sophisticated cctv and number plate recognition network in place. The cost of supplying our overseas forces is considerable and a saving there could be applied to the crime prevention measures here.
For my money, I would be much happier with a crime prevention operation here rather than a war in Afghanistan. All we do there is irritate a lot of the people. Any determined assault we mount leads to civilian deaths by nature of the grossl;y disproportionate force deployed. There are no rules to this game. So, what is there to prevent AQ from initiating a - to use words Brown and Milliband understand - a war on terror here anyway? If they truly thought they could do this and there was any mileage in it - they would. That is what terrorism is about - spreading terror.
Posted via email from John's posterous
Wednesday, 8 July 2009
Payment by results
I had hoped to see that the banks would be denied the opportunity to indulge in what is little more than gambling. There needs to be a firm foundation of banks that will serve the basic needs of customers. No get rich quick plans coming out every day. No take overs. Just plain vanilla attention to serve clients with terms, conditions, plans and charges all pre-determined and immutable. These staid and proper banks would never get into any circumstance that needs them being supported from central funds.
There is a need for cowboys to cater for the risk-takers. I have heard the term 'casino bank' and that seems about right to me. Players in a casino know the risks they run and a few spins of the wheel can strip them of everything they have made at the table. If one of the casino organisations were to go down the pan - so be it. They would not cause any major movement in the finance world and there would be no question of rescue, part-nationalisation or support. The term 'casino' would serve as a warning to those who would do business with them and they also would be on their own if things went tits-up. No great need for supervision; there would be clear and unambiguous rules and audit would be frequent and rigorous.
The question of bonus payments needs attention. The mantra is that the employer must pay inflated salaried and promise bounties for performance if they are to get the employee they desire. Nonsense. High demands and expectations by the prospective CEO or whatever are nothing other than blackmail. "Pay me this or I will go elsewhere" The system needs to be such that there is no elsewhere that will pay him the inflated salary and benefits from performance. If banks and other employers refused these high rewards to all, the idea that they had to meet the blackmailer's demands would fall by the wayside. Rugby clubs have wages caps where their total wage bill must not exceed a stated sum and these work. If the cap is £1 million and the employer wants to pay Mr Wonderful £900K - fine. All he has to do is fund the rest of his Board on the £100K that is left. There would be no £90 million transfer deals as in soccer if the agent and player knew no one would pay more than £30 million.
There should be other controls. The high cost of motor fuel and the instability of the market is artificially created. Getting a 50 gallon drum filled at the well head remains the same this week as it did 26 weeks ago. It is the machinations of the traders that cause the ups and downs. Trading on oil supplies must be barred. Only in the last few days we have seen how a trader went on a late night binge and caused a heck of a lot of trouble. The refiners all have long term contracts with those blessed with oil in their ground and it should be these that govern prices. Having a fixed price for crude would bring to a halt the nonsense where oil countries manipulate prices by raising or lowering the amount released on to the refiners. I have used oil as an example only. The same system should apply to all things capable of being traded in futures markets. These 'positions' also effect prices where costs to produce and market is steady but the cost of the item varies wildly.
I do not know enough of the, to me, murky world of the venture capitalist but the sale of deals here suggests it is something that needs control if it is not to damage a nation's economy. They are drawn into deals where they smell vast and quick profit as shark smells blood in the water. Fine. But there must be firm controls set up such that what they do is isolated from routine banking and should work alongside the 'casino' banks on the same terms. If they want to play no limit poker and go all-in and someone has a better hand - tough. Do not come crying to me.
Posted via email from John's posterous
Thursday, 2 July 2009
A new dimension
I have some Spotify invites if anyone thinks they might want to get started.
Posted via email from John's posterous
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