Thursday, 20 May 2010

When two tribes go to war

"Chinese might be willing to handle the Iran issue at the U.N., if the U.S. is willing to handle the sinking of the South Korean ship, the Cheonan, at the regional level without elevating it to the U.N.

South Korea will formally blame North Korea for launching a torpedo that sank the naval ship in March, killing 46 South Korean sailors, The Washington Post reported Tuesday."

This could all get very nasty and intense. Neither Korea is known for their forbearance in blaming the other for just about everything that happens. To then link that situation with the very tetchy matter of Iranian links with countries keen to assist in the matter of uranium could raise the temperature on two fronts.

I've been looking at the published reports and the background to the North torpedo 'conclusion'. Not a lot seems to have surfaced but it might not be so conclusive as we read. Finding a portion of a torpedo with Korean markings would not be difficult. To associate this with the attack is again not conclusive; the South claims they found a match with some explosive on - guess what - a N Korean missile recovered earlier. Seems there was no direct contact of warhead and sunken ship - merely a proximity explosion. This leaves it up to the North explaining that an errant mine was to blame. The South has seeded the waters with mines in the past.

In a contest that will doubtless be won by the most verbose and loudest, the North will win. They have such a firm grip on the hearts and minds of its people and very full censorship that raising the passions in the North would be very easy, Where both sides will have access to nuclear assets, that could be a very dangerous outcome. Another string to my No To Trident bow.

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